SOIL CONSERVATION OR COMMODITY PROGRAMS: TRADE OFFS DURING THE TRANSITION TO DRYLAND CROP PRODUCTION

Predicted crop yields and wind erosion rates from a multi-year/multi-crop growth simulation model provided input into a multi-period recursive QP model to evaluate erosion implications during the transition to dryland crop production on the Texas Southern High Plains. Three farm-program participation options were considered in this study. Participation in an extension of the current farm program resulted in an increase in net returns and wind erosion rates above nonparticipation. Imposition of a soil loss limit without consideration of a flexible base option can significantly reduce discounted present values. Increasing risk aversion across producers affects crop mix selection which can result in lower per acre wind erosion rates for this particular region.