Sollbruchstelle: Deep Uncertainty and the Design of Monetary Institutions.

Sollbruchstelle: this German engineering term translates as "part that is supposed to break down". It stands for that part of a machine that is deliberately designed to be weaker, and less costly, than other parts of the machine so that it, rather than the more expensive parts, takes the hit when the machine comes under stress. A breakdown thus comes with little collateral damage and is fixed quickly and at low cost. This paper applies the idea of Sollbruchstelle to the design of fiat monetary institutions. Well-designed institutions are credibly committed to follow a sound monetary policy. But they are also flexible in the face of deep uncertainty. They respond to novel economic and social developments as well as shifting understandings of the way the macroeconomy works. When necessary, they accommodate political pressures, renege on promises, and change their institutional stripes. As they become obsolete, they go gently into that good night--and if they must break down, they do so forgivingly. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd.