Some aspects of adaptability of alternative urban configurations

In examining the adaptability of various urban forms to events such as sudden oil shortages, or uncertainties in supply, it is important to distinguish between short-term adjustments and more durable medium-term and longer-term effects. Whereas short-term effects may just involve certain commuters changing their travel modes, medium-term effects include change of job, and longer-term effects include relocation both of household and of employment activity. Using certain geometric patterns of housing and jobs and certain assumptions about the form of the transport network, it is demonstrated that some arrangements allow more scope for medium-term adjustments than others. In the longer term, it is demonstrated that the degree to which commuters have already been able to make the medium-term adjustments of changing job determines whether a greater dispersion or a greater concentration of job opportunities will reduce average trip lengths. Last, possible implications of changing technology on the modification and even reversal of these changes in urban travel behaviour are discussed.