SOME ASPECTS REGARDING THE PREDICTABILITY OR NON-PREDICTABILITY OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION. CASE OF ROMANIA

Analysis of the crisis, particularly financial ones, the generating factors and the applicable patterns to return to normality is a consistent and timely concern of researchers in economics. After the advent of the global crisis in mid-2007, many researchers recognized internationally and nationally formulated theories about the causes, effects and intensity of the current crisis, providing reference works in the field. The starting point of the research puts in the spotlight the fact that the deepest crises have their "origins" in developed countries, but are funded by the emerging countries. In the context of this "reality" the economy seeks to predict the possible behaviours in configuration of a context to return to normality, where unexpected trends and consequences of unintended effects require completion of the theory deficit in Romanian economic literature regarding the economic effects caused by subjective decision, especially political decisions. Carrying out research with a high degree of completeness, necessarily requires knowledge and understanding of the history of financial crises, starting with the Great Depression, focusing on the implications on the Romanian economy, and in particular, on the intervention models commonly used in order to identify "optimal model" that allows escalation of the current crisis, but also a more accurate predictability of future adverse events.