Some Evidence on Mean Reversion in ex ante Real Interest Rates.

Ex ante real interest rates and their differentials are tested for mean reversion using quarterly data on three-month treasury bill rates and consumer prices for twelve major industrial countries over the period 1972:1-1993:3. The results are strongly supportive of mean reversion, particularly when less conventional tests are employed. The conclusion that can be derived from the empirical evidence is that goods, capital, and foreign exchange markets have become highly integrated in the countries under consideration. Copyright 1996 by Scottish Economic Society.