SOURCES OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON INTERDEPENDENCE: AN INPUT-OUTPUT PERSPECTIVE FOR THE POST-1980 TURKISH ECONOMY

The objective of this study is to analyze the patterns of structural and technological movements in the post-1980 Turkish economy. This period is known to span the overall transformation of the Turkish economy from domestic demand-oriented import substitutionist industrialization to one with export-orientation and integration with the global commodity and financial markets. What was theoretically expected from the process of outward orientation, was that as the economy would be exposed to more competition and technological know-how in the global markets and rapid gains in productivity would be converted into an engine of growth through technological improvements. It is the purpose of this paper to analytically depict and decompose the output movements in Turkey from 1980 onwards. By doing so, it becomes possible to observe whether trade orientation has been (one of) the major stimulating factors of output growth. To this end, this study uses input-output tables and employs Structural Decomposition Analysis to decompose the output change in the economy into the fraction attributable to changes in technology, the fraction attributable to import penetration in intermediate demand and the fractions attributable to level and composition of final demand, both in terms of its domestic and foreign components.