Sous-estimation des recettes fiscales dans les cantons suisses: prudence ou erreur systématique?

The accuracy of revenue forecasts is central to fiscal policy and management of public finances since they set the limit within which expenditure should remain in order to reach fiscal balance. In the current contribution we apply the method developed by Elliott et alii (2005) to test for the rationality of direct tax revenue forecasts in the 26 Swiss cantons over 1944–2010. We find that the one year-ahead forecast of the growth rate of direct tax revenue is rational and unbiased in a majority of cantons. We also show that the level of direct tax revenue is systematically underesti - mated. Nonetheless, rationality tests suggest that this observed underestimation is due to underlying asymmetric loss functions rather than to an inefficient use of available information. These results tend to support that a certain degree of prudence in government revenue forecasts may be desirable.