Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Deforestation in a Palm Oil Production Pole in the Eastern Amazon

In Brazil, public policies to encourage the production of oil palm aimed to minimize the associated potential deforestation in the Amazon. A decade after the initiative was launched, however, little is known about its effects on deforestation. This study investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of deforestation at the palm oil agribusiness pole in the Brazil, before and after the establishment of the public policy. Through econometric analyses, the results indicated that deforestation was strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal structure. Variables such as pasture area (before the policy), number of inhabitants (at policy launch), and area planted with oil palm (up to three years after the policy) were positively correlated with deforestation. GDP per capita was negatively correlated with deforestation after the policy was launched. The palm oil production value was not a driver of regional deforestation before or after implementation of the policy. The effect of neighbouring municipalities on deforestation spillover was observed in groups of municipalities. Despite an observed time lag, we infer that the public policy contributed to controlling deforestation in the region. We argued that spatial and temporal effects, as well as their interactions are relevant factors to be considered in regional deforestation dynamics