Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises

Recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance of payments crises are reviewed. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, including alternative postcollapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy are discussed.