Stabilitätspakt – Eine fiktive ex-post Anwendung und reale Probleme der Zukunft

Abstract This article deals with the stability and growth pact approved of by the EU’s heads of state or government in Amsterdam in June 1997. The pact’s aim is to provide budgetary discipline in Stage 3 of the European Monetary Union in order to ensure a stable common currency and the European Central Bank’s independence. Excessive deficits are evaluated by taking into account real GDP growth. A hypothetical application of the stability pact for the period 1979 to 1996 shows considerable problems for some future EMU-members if structural deficits are not reduced before entering EMU. The credibility of the stability pact within EMU will depend upon timely and exact statistical data as well as on a strict application of its rules. On both accounts there remain doubts.