Stochastic methods for safety assessment of the flood defense system in the Scheldt Estuary of the Netherlands

In this study, we address the effective method to apply a novel reliability method integrated with finite element models to the safety assessment of pilot site Scheldt in the Netherlands. This site was considered as one of the three main pilot sites in Europe to assess the application of newly suggested techniques in order to reduce and manage the flood risk in the Floodsite project. <ExternalRef> <RefSource>http://www.floodsite.net</RefSource> <RefTarget Address="http://www.floodsite.net" TargetType="URL"/> </ExternalRef>, <CitationRef CitationID="CR8">2004–2009</CitationRef>). The novel method of dynamic bounds (DB) is applied to this site after a successful experience in (Rajabalinejad in Reliability methods for finite element models, 1 edn. IOS Press, Amsterdam, <CitationRef CitationID="CR20">2009</CitationRef>). In this study, the bi-functional response of the finite element model is considered, and the dimensional uncertainty is defined presenting the expected uncertainty for a certain dimension in the DB method. The uncertainty is used as a judgment tool to choose the dimension for the DB method for the desired accuracy. The results obtained by applying this technique are presented in this paper. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010