Stochastic Simulations using the ESRI Short-Run Model(in Japanese)

This paper reports the result of some stochastic simulations using a tentatively modified version of the Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of Japanese Economy, which was released in 2001 (Hori et al. [2001]). Repeatedly calculated multipliers indicate that the multipliers of an econometric model should be interpreted with sizable confidence intervals, and the intervals spread out as time goes on. In this sense, we always have to take account of the stochastic nature of the econometric analyses, and should not let ourselves be affected by trivial changes of revised multipliers.