Stochastic Source Model for Strong Motion Prediction

The article aims at developing a stochastic model which simulates spatial distribution of slip on the fault plane. This is achieved by analysing a large dataset of 303 finite-fault rupture models from 152 past earthquakes with varying fault mechanisms and in the magnitude range of 4.11-9.12. New scaling relations to predict the seismic source parameters such as fault length, fault width, rupture area, mean and standard deviation of slip have been derived for distinct fault mechanisms. The developed methodology models the spatial variability of slip as a two-dimensional von Karman power spectral density function (PSD) and correlation lengths are estimated. The proposed stochastic slip model is validated by comparing the simulated near-field ground response with the recorded data available for the 20th September 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan.