Stock Market Volatility in Saudi Arabia : An Application of Univariate GARCH Model

Study of stock market volatility has been the focus of financial economics. Modelling stock market volatility has great contributions to make in the areas of portfolio management, asset allocation, risk management, etc. We estimate the conditional volatility of Saudi stock market by applying AR (1)-GARCH (1,1) model to the daily stock returns data spanning from August 1, 2004 to October 31, 2013. We show that a linear symmetric GARCH (1,1) model is adequate to estimate the volatility of the stock market of the country. We find that Saudi stock market returns are characterised by volatility clustering and follow a non-normal distribution. Saudi stock market returns show a time varying volatility, show persistence and are predictable. Past volatility impacts the current period volatility and past returns play a role in determining the current period return. Saudi stock market is nervous in its reactions to market fluctuations. This finding of the study offer important input into the decisions relating to asset allocation and risk management strategies of investors and treasury managers in Saudi stock market