Strategies for sequential prediction of stationary time series

We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combination of several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

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Year of publication:	2000-09
Authors:	Györfi, László ; Lugosi, Gábor
Institutions:	Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Subject:	Sequential prediction \| ergodic process \| individual sequence \| gaussian process

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	Economics Working Papers.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Classification:	C13 - Estimation ; C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772330