Strategy for R&D: Studies in the Microeconomics of Development

1. The Microeconomic Study of Development -- The Nature of the Studies -- The Microeconomic Study of Development and its Relation to Broader Economic Issues -- 2. Issues in the Choice of Development Policies -- A. What Is Development? -- B. The Structure of a Development: Uncertainty Reducing and Routine Tasks -- C. The Nature of Internal Uncertainties in Development -- D. The Resolution of Uncertainty -- E. The Elements of Development Policy -- F. The Component State of the Art Advance -- G. Component Interrelatedness -- H. The Use of Parallel Developments -- I. Distribution of Effort Among Uncertainty Reducing Tasks -- J. The Impact of Available Time and Resources upon Development Strategies -- K. External Uncertainties -- L. The Relation of Development Strategies to External Uncertainties -- M. Conclusion -- 3. The Role of Project Histories in the Study of R&D -- A. Introduction -- B. Airborne Radars -- C. Aircraft Engines -- D. Fighter Aircraft -- E. Two Postwar Strategic Jet Bomber Programs -- F. The Sidewinder Missile -- G. Conclusions -- 4. Cost Estimates as Predictors of Actual Costs: A Statistical Study of Military Developments -- A. Introduction and Summary -- B. An Analysis of Cost-estimate Chronologies -- C. The Consequences of Cost-estimate Inaccuracies -- 5. Toward a Normative Theory of Development -- A. Introduction -- B. Normative Problems in Development Strategy -- C. Normative Problems in Development Organization -- Appendix: Proof of Theorem 4 of Chapter 5.