Strengthening Pandemic Preparedness and Response Through Integrated Modelling

The impacts of epidemics and pandemics can go beyond health and the health sector, threatening livelihoods and other economic sectors. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding these events and the potential multidimensional and distributional impacts of response options imply that policy-making should be informed by evidence from the integration of disciplines and through intersectoral collaborations. Integrated epidemiologic-macroeconomic modelling (integrated modelling) can serve as a tool to explicitly adopt a multi-perspective and multi-dimensional approach to epidemics and pandemics and systematically consider the benefits and costs of different policy strategies and their distribution within society. Although integrated modelling promises to overcome the siloed disciplines and inherent tensions of priority-setting, the use of mathematical modelling in policy-making and the capacity of producing integrated models vary across country contexts. This guide proposes four initiatives and associated activities that can be adapted to context to enhance the production and use of integrated modelling before, during and after an epidemic or pandemic.