Structural Change and Moderating Growth in the People's Republic of China : Implications for Developing Asia and Beyond

Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Tables, Figures, and Boxes -- Acknowledgments -- Highlights -- 1 The World's Economic Engine is Changing and Slowing -- Fundamental changes are underway in the People's Republic of China -- These changes have substantial implications for growth -- There is a low-probability risk of a sharper slowdown -- 2 Implications of the People's Republic of China's Growth Moderation for the Rest of the World and Developing Asia -- Spillovers from gradual growth moderation -- What a sharp slowdown could look like: An event study analysis -- 3 The Impact on Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporters -- Introduction -- The People's Republic of China's impact on commodity prices -- How a shock on People's Republic of China activity impacts commodity prices -- The impact of People's Republic of China moderation on commodity-exporting countries in developing Asia -- Discussion and conclusions -- 4 Spillovers through Trade and Production Linkages -- Introduction -- The trade channel approach: A panel regression approach -- Understanding sectoral effects: Analysis using world input-output data -- Looking forward: Shifting patterns of trade from the People's Republic of China's Belt and Road Initiative -- 5 Challenges and Opportunities for Developing Asia -- Technical Appendix -- References -- Tables, Figures, and Boxes -- Tables -- 1 Magnitudes of growth decelerations during disorderly slowdowns -- 2 Share of selected global commodities, PRC -- 3 Selected developing Asian economies and their main primary exports, 2013 -- 4 Impulse response function of a shock to PRC industrial production -- 5 Terms of trade estimation results -- 6 Growth panel regression results -- 7 Change in the total terms of trade and TOT effects, selected developing Asian economies.