STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE BRAZILIAN DEMAND FOR IMPORTS: A regime switching approach

The aim of the present paper is to apply a Markov Switching model to check the characteristics of the Brazilian demand for imports equation based on annual data from 1947 to 2002 and on quarterly data from 1978:I to 2002:II. The results show that this model satisfactorily describes the structural and conjunctural characteristics of Brazilian foreign trade in the last decades. The longterm analysis, based on annual data, allowed for the identification of cyclic periods of trade closure and openness that coincide with the historical events of Brazilian economy. The conjunctural analysis, based on quarterly data, indicates different elasticities for a regime with rise and fall in imports

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Year of publication:	2004-08-11
Authors:	Portugal, M. ; Morais, I.A. de
Institutions:	Econometric Society
Subject:	Markov Switching \| Error Correction Mechanism \| Demand for Imports \| Trade Elasticities \| Co-integration

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	The text is part of a series Econometric Society Latin American Meetings 2004 Number 346
Classification:	F14 - Country and Industry Studies of Trade ; F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics ; C51 - Model Construction and Estimation ; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10005129776