Structural VAR identification of the Turkish business cycles

In this paper, we investigate some of the main properties of the Turkish business cycles. Our empirical findings indicate that domestic inflation is countercyclical with real output and lags the GDP cycle by one quarter. We then construct a structural VAR model upon the Turkish economy, and estimate that the courses of real variables are mainly determined by the supply shocks, while both real and nominal shocks affect significantly the dynamics of the nominal variables.