Structure de consommation, innovation et régimes de croissance

This article addresses theoretically the dynamics of innovation and growth paths in an economy producing “standard goods” and emerging “new goods”. We model consumers’ preferences for both types of goods as well as producers’ behaviours in relation with consumers’ decisions. In particular, we model how producers adapt their dynamics of innovation, i.e. their research and development activities in both sectors. We derive three growth regimes (stagnation, take-off and maturity of the industry) that correspond to three increasing levels of diffusion of the “new goods” in household consumption and to three different dynamics of innovation. Reaching the “industrial maturity regime” depends on the consumer taste for diversity in respect of new goods and on the adoption costs of new goods. We also show that, in the “industrial maturity regime”, the innovation dynamics, the diffusion of new goods in the consumption and the economic growth evolve in the same direction. Consequently, we derive that differences in the consumption structures might explain innovation dynamics and growth paths differences in economies having access in addition to similar techniques and characteristics.