Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. JEL classification: C53

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Clements, Michael P
Institutions:	Department of Economics, University of Warwick
Subject:	Subjective uncertainty \| realized uncertainty \| output growth forecasts \| inflation forecasts

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Series:	The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS).
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010819835