Subsidies for substitutes? New evidence on deadweight loss and substitution effects of a wage subsidy for hard-to-place job-seekers

This paper estimates substitution effects of the German active labour market programme JobPerspektive, a wage subsidy for hard-to-place welfare recipients. Using a novel panel of the entire population of German establishments with full information on unsubsidized and subsidized employment, counterfactual employment levels of subsidized employers are modelled by way of matching on the propensity score of receiving the subsidy. Using the same method, the substitution of particular groups of workers, including those subsidized by other programme types, is investigated as well. Results provide little evidence for widespread substitution of regular workers due to receiving this particular subsidy; in fact, regular employment is somewhat increased in West Germany as a result of subsidization. Furthermore, JobPerspektive is being used by employers in lieu of wage-paying work opportunities, and receiving JobPerspektive causes establishments to employ more workers with regular hiring subsidies.