Substitution or complementary effects between banking and stock markets: Evidence from financial openness in Taiwan

This study uses quarterly data from 1973 to 2007 to investigate the influence of financial institutions on economic growth in Taiwan. We find that the breakpoint obtained by Gregory and Hansen (1996) appears in the third quarter of 1982, which coincides with the period of financial openness. In addition, the substitution effect between credit and equity markets is improved following financial openness. The negative impact of volatility on real output before financial openness turned positive after financial openness, suggesting that appropriate volatility enhances Taiwan's economic growth under the circumstance of more matured stock market following financial openness. However, the beneficial influence of liquidity on real output before financial openness turned negative afterward, suggesting openness generated the undesirable side effect of excess liquidity that impeded economic growth. Our long-run results are essentially the same even if we take the role of the private bond market into account.