Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price

We analyze a controlled price formation experiment in the laboratory that shows evidence for bubbles. We calibrate two models that demonstrate with high statistical significance that these laboratory bubbles have a tendency to grow faster than exponential due to positive feedback. We show that the positive feedback operates by traders continuously upgrading their over-optimistic expectations of future returns based on past prices rather than on realized returns.

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Year of publication:	2012-05
Authors:	Andreas H\"usler ; Sornette, Didier ; Hommes, Cars H.
Institutions:	arXiv.org

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	Papers.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010600012