Supporting the deployment of selected low-carbon technologies in Europe : implications of techno-economic assumptions : an energy system perspective with the JRC-EU-TIMES model

This report aims at supporting the identification of technological options that could facilitate an efficient and effective transition to a low-carbon energy technology portfolio in the EU for the medium term (2030). It also aims at improving the reader's understanding on how uncertainty of cost and efficiency parameters impact technologies' competiveness as well as affordability, security and sustainability of the entire energy system. How does the techno-economic performance of low-carbon technologies affect their deployment? : Technology improvements, on top of the projected learning, could accelerate deployment of established technologies (PV and wind onshore and offshore). In contrast, even with a more pessimistic technology outlook, deployment of additional capacity will continue until 2030. Emerging technologies (e.g. second-generation biofuels, tidal stream and carbon capture and storage) take up a role in 2030 only under optimistic scenario assumptions. The overall impact on security of supply, affordability and environmental sustainability is generally proportional to technology deployment. Technologies that are still marginal, like tidal stream energy, require strong improvements, which might be difficult to achieve in the medium-term without significant additional R&I efforts.