Survey of simulation models of long-term care use and expenditure

The objective of this study is to provide a technical overview of the main simulation tools that are used for the projections of future developments in long term care systems in developed countries. The main thrust of the present analysis is that aging and uncertainties with respect to future trends in disability across individuals, and in costs required to cater to future needs, are likely to raise significant challenges both for individuals and for policy makers in the not-so-distant future, and that the supply of long-term care (LTC) is unlikely to match future demand. The main concepts used in the long term care literature are illustrated, and modelling strategies employed by different investigators are reviewed. Each of the simulation models discussed in this survey is presented in detail in the Appendix together with the relevant references. Both macrosimulation models primarily based on aggregate data at country level and microsimulation models based on individual and household survey data are considered in the present study.