Syria Macro-Fiscal Assessment

Fourteen years of conflict have devastated Syria's economy. The assessment takes stock of Syria's economic trajectory amid ongoing political transition and regional instability. It highlights the severe erosion of Syria's economic base, chronic fiscal pressures, and the profound impact of sanctions, conflict-driven disruptions, and the rise of informality and illicit economic activities during the past decade. Subject to a high degree of uncertainty, the report projects modest GDP growth of 1.0 percent in 2025, following a contraction of 1.5 percent in 2024, under the assumption of continued security challenges, liquidity constraints, and suspended foreign assistance. Increased regional engagement - especially from Türkiye and some Gulf states - along with the easing of sanctions, could support recovery and investment and provides some upside potential