Over a century of rapid urbanization and industrialization in New Jersey brought visible impacts on the watershed. Consequently, it puts ever-increasing stress on the resource and environmental capacities of the region. This research focuses on an urban industrial coastal area in New Jersey (Water Management Areas 4, 5, 6 and 7), USA, an ecology heavily impacted by human activities. The objective of this research is to investigate the dynamic interactions between natural environment and human society and to model long-term trends in environmental impact and sustainable development. The data include 21 environmental, social and economic indicators for five counties (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, and Passaic Counties) collected for years between1980 and 2010 (Some indicators have data only from 1990 to 2010). The data show that within the study area, population has increased by an annual average of 6.4% with a range from -7.9% to 20.7% over 30 years, and per capital GDP increased from $11,836 to $53,362, while unemployment rates fluctuated from 4.4% to 10% over 20 years. The environmental investment increased steadily from $143 million to $247 million from 1990 to 2010. To project the future of environmental sustainability, a system dynamic model was established based on the 21 indicators. Results suggest that population will remain stable, reaching 3.35 million in 2025 from 3.3 million in 2010, and per capita GDP will reach $71,990 with an annual growth rate of 1.7%. A continued increase of environmental investment is also predicted, as per capita GDP growth is forecast to be reasonably strong. The average value of the Pb hazard quotient, which is a pollution indicator, is projected to drop from 5.0 in 1999 to 2.46 in 2025. However, this value will remain within the moderate hazard range. The research indicates that environmental pollution in this urbanized area will remain as a consequence of historical urbanization and industrialization. The system dynamic model suggests that we will be walking a finely-balanced line in Northern New Jersey as the environment continues to suffer from the consequences of long term industrialization and urbanization at the same time that climate change may present new challenges
