Systems Analysis and Modeling in Defense : Development, Trends, and Issues

Section 1 Introduction -- Some Important Issues in Allied Command Europe to which Analysis Could Contribute -- Some Issues in Defence Systems Analysis and Modelling -- Section 2 New Model Development -- Findings of Workshop A -- 2.1 New Land/Air Warfare Models -- Analyse de la Dynamique d’une Confrontation Conventionnelle Est-Ouest en Relation avec la Dialectique du Desarmament -- Central Region Conflict Dynamics Model (CRCDM) -- Defence Dynamics — Predictions of War Outcomes and Evaluation of Force Structure -- CORDEF: An Army Corps Simulation -- The Land Operations Model — An Application of System Dynamics for Modelling Land Combat on the Division Level -- VECTOR-2 Land/Air Campaign Model -- Summary of a Verification Study of VECTOR-2 with the Arab-Israeli War -- Canadian Land War Gaming -- The McClintic Theater Model -- Large Unit Combat Simulation — Corps and Division -- 2.2 Modelling Command, Control, Communications, Intelligence (C3I) and Electronic Warfare -- Structure of Command and Control (C2) Analysis -- The Command and Control Process as a Function of Time -- Methods for Analyzing the Contributions of C3 and C3CM to Military Force Capabilities -- C3 and Combat Simulation — a Survey -- What Influences a Battlefield Command Decision? -- Modelling of Tactical Decision Processes for Division — Level Combat Simulations -- Quantitative Analysis of Intelligence/Electronic Warfare: VECTOR/IEW -- Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Model -- Modelling C3 — A Description of the Command, Control, Communications, Combat Effectiveness (FOURCE) Model -- Test and Evaluation of the Technical Control and Analysis Center at Division (TCAC (D)) -- 2.3 Modelling and Analysis of Nuclear and Chemical Weapon Effects -- The IDA Tactical Warfare Model: A Theater-Level Model of Conventional, Nuclear, and Chemical Warfare -- Use of War Games in Analysis of Tactical Nuclear Warfare Doctrine -- Modelling Nuclear and Chemical Effects in a Division/Corps War Game -- Section 3 Modelling Issues and Analysis of Results -- Findings of Workshop B -- 3.1 Empirical Models and Model Foundation -- Can Exercises be Used in Place of Operations in Operational Research? -- A Comparison of Casualty Rates Recorded in a Field Trial and Those Predicted by a Computer Programme -- The Place for Tactically Interactive Field Trials in Data Collection -- Analysis of Opportunities to Engage -- Experimental Evidence of the “Tide of Battle” -- 3.2 Hierarchical Modelling and Aggregation Problems -- US Army Model Improvement Program (AMIP) -- Hierarchical Linkup of Attrition and Ammunition Expenditures between Models -- A Self-Contained Hierarchical Simulation Construct -- Aggregation Methods to Represent Small Dismounted Infantry Unit Combined Arms Battles in Division and Corps War Games -- Extensions to Lanchester Theory of Combat -- The Use of a Special Win Factor in Army Corps Simulations as Applied to Attrition Issues -- 3.3 Variance Due to Combat Processes and Model Structure -- Combat Situation Assessment with Respect to Terrain and Tactics -- How Non-Weapon-System Parameters Affect Combat Results -- Structural Variance and other Related Topics Experienced in the SHAPE Armour/Anti-Armour Study -- STOCHADE — A Highly Aggregated and Stochastic Combat Model -- Variance Reduction -- Section 4 Analysis Issues -- Findings of Workshop C -- 4.1 Force Design and Long Range Planning -- Defense Long Range Acquisition Planning — Concepts and Methodology -- Improving the Definition of the Army Objective Force (IDOFOR) — A Methodology Study -- Some Force Structuring and Design Analysis Issues -- Application of a War Game and an Analytical Decision Model to Planning of Military Structures -- 4.2 Tactics and Operational Concepts -- A Contingency Force Analysis Methodology -- Evaluation de l’Intérêt Stratégique de Zones Particulières -- The MAGIC (Manually Assisted Gaming of Integrated Combat) Model -- Battle -- Modelling the Red Force — Simulating Soviet Responses in Battle -- 4.3 Readiness and Sustainability -- Omnibus — A Methodology for Assessing Force Readiness and Sustainability -- Combat Sustainability Analysis of NATO Center Region TacAir in Support of the U.S. Planning, Programming, Policy and Budgeting Process -- TSAR and TSARINA: Simulation Models for Assessing Force Generation and Logistics Support in a Combat Environment -- Loss Rates and Maintenance Requirements in Wartime.