Taux de change d’équilibre et compétitivité au Maroc : Estimation par le Modèle ARDL de cointégration

This study estimated the real equilibrium exchange rate and its misalignment by adopting the Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX) approach and by using ARDL cointegration model, the aim is to interpret the impact of the determinants used to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate and afterward to assess the importance of the exchange rate in the competitiveness of the Moroccan economy, by analyzing the evolution and the reaction of the trade balance vis-à-vis the misalignment. Thus, the results showed that the rise in terms of trade which is an indicator of economic competitiveness can have an impact on the appreciation of the exchange rate and therefore constrain Moroccan exports, this evidence confirms indeed the importance of the exchange rate as an instrument of price competitiveness; further analysis also demonstrated the possible delayed effect of the misalignment of the exchange rate on the Moroccan trade balance; The study also identified a competitiveness problem linked to the structure of the Moroccan economy showing an absence of the Blassa-Samuelson effect. We also found, that the impact of public spending on the exchange rate, shows a problem of the nature of this spending which is more oriented towards tradable goods contributing to higher imports and hence to the deterioration of the trade balance.