Taux de change des pays exportateurs de matières premières. L'importance des termes de l'échange et de la monnaie d'ancrage

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of terms of trade on real exchange rates for commodity exporters and oil exporters. To this end, we rely on panel cointegration techniques and estimate a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals, including the commodity terms of trade, on the 1980-2007 period. Our findings show that there exists a long term relationship between real exchange rates and commodity prices, but that the former respond to oil price somewhat less than to commodity prices. Our results also indicate that the deviations of some pegged currencies to their equilibrium values mainly come from the wild fluctuations in the key currencies, on which they are anchored. Classification JEL : C23, F31, O13.