Technik und sektoraler Wandel : technologische Eingriffstiefe, sektorale Adaptionsfähigkeit und soziotechnische Transformationsmuster

Following up on recent debates about sectoral systems of innovation and production, the paper introduces a heuristic framework for analyzing and explaining distinct patterns of technology-based sectoral change. The concept is based on two main interrelated influencing factors. The first is the sectoral-specific transformative capacity of new technologies themselves: What kind of substantial or incremental impact do they have on socio-economic and institutional change in a given sectoral system? The second is the sectoral adaptability of socio-economic structures, institutions and actors confronted with the opportunities presented by new technologies. The first factor - sectoral transformative capacity of new technologies - enables us to identify the technologydriven pressure to change and adjust the structural and institutional architectures of sectoral systems. The second, complementary factor - sectoral adaptability - helps us to discern the distinct social patterns of anticipation and absorption of this technologybased pressure. The specific interplay between the two influencing factors leads to distinguishable modes of sectoral transformation ranging from anticipative and smooth adjustments to reactive and disruptive patterns of change.