Technology adoption in response to changes in market conditions: Evidence from the US petroleum refining industry

This paper analyzes the determinants of the levels and rates of technology adoption for petroleum refineries that survived the period 1980-1989, during which the conditions of product demand and crude oil supply changed significantly. Regression models are specified to investigate the growth of technology-related capacity, the growth of technology complexity, and the rates of adoption estimated from a diffuse model of technology use. Both levels and rates of adoption are hypothesized to be affected by refinery size, regulatory status, elements of local markets, and geographical factors. Empirical results generally suggest that compared with the supply-side factors of crude oil sources and regulatory subsidies, refinery size and demand-side factors, such as total consumption, consumption growth and fluctuation, and changes of the consumption mix, are responsible for the most part of the determination of technology adoption for refineries surviving the 1980s.