Technology And Crisis: A Historical Retrospective Of Quantitative Reflection

This article throws a quantitative spotlight on one separate part of a united qualitative picture of the economy, namely: the link of crisis with technical innovation. The passing from words to figures is not a trivial deed and the article claims to find the most adequate way regarding the proclaimed narrow scope. It is proven here that the technologically determined factor of unavoidable temporal recession exists. This techno-factor is a cold hard fact in itself, not belonging to some school of economic thought or even to some field of science and at the same time influencing all them. The word ‘factor’ is used in this formulation instead of, say, ‘cause’ to make room for other, mainly avoidable, possible factors of recession such as financial and other discoordinations; and to take its own place in the recognized set of factors. A notion of “sinking” S-curve of development of the whole economy is also proposed in addition to the well-known S-shaped logistic curve of diffusion of a separate technology. The results have turned out to be both an approval and disapproval of some established ideas, concepts, verbal descriptions, subconscious comprehensions and superstitions; and settled or mediated some disputes between the competing schools.