Temporal Behaviour of Rural-Urban Migration and Extent of Urbanization

The paper views the phenomenon of rural-urban migration in terms of relative growth of urban areas. Four factors influencing the relative growth of urban areas are identified. They are: (i) dependency ratio in urban areas (ii) employment opportunities in the economy (iii) industrial structure in the economy and (iv) concentration of economic activities in the urban areas. The time trends of each one of these factors is postulated over various stages of economic development of the nation. Based on these trends, the hypothesized relationship between migration and wages over time is derived. Empirical exercise based on the Indian Census data from 1951 to 1981 carried out within this framework offers interesting insights into the processes of urbanization India and hence some broad policy recommendations.