Testing for Real Interest Rate Convergence in European Countries

We use cointegration tests that determine endogenously the regime shift to test for bilateral short-term and long-term real interest rate convergence in the European Monetary System in the 1979--1993 period. The results of these tests provide strong evidence in favour of bilateral real interest rate convergence between Germany and several countries in our sample, particularly for long-term real interest rates. This result carries the important policy implication that in several European countries monetary policy has lost some of its effectiveness as a stabilisation policy tool.