The 2008-09 Crisis in Turkey : Performance, Policy Responses and Challenges for Sustaining the Recovery

Turkey is recovering from its most severe recession in several decades. The massive contraction in GDP is largely explained by the unprecedented collapse in foreign demand, which was aggravated in Turkey by negative confidence effects and structural problems with competitiveness prior to the crisis. In contrast to previous recessions, Turkey could afford counter–cyclical polices and the financial markets proved resilient. During the crisis, the authorities cut interest rates significantly and promptly and implemented fiscal stimulus. This truly novel experience was possible thanks to a better macroeconomic position, a sounder monetary and fiscal policy framework, and better financial market regulations. The immediate policy challenge is to gradually remove policy stimulus and address medium–term stability considerations in a way that does not jeopardise the recovery. This paper relates to the 2010 OECD Economic Review of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey).