The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach

This paper uses the asymmetric threshold cointegration test to examine the asymmetric relationship between household income and vehicle ownership in Taiwan, presenting estimated asymmetric error correction models. The empirical data include information on household income, car ownership and motorcycle ownership in different regions from 1974 to 2009. The results show that, first, motorcycle ownership is asymmetrically cointegrated with household income in each region, and car ownership is asymmetrically cointegrated with household income in all regions except Taipei city. Second, both car and motorcycle ownership levels increase faster than they decrease in the asymmetric adjustment of their long-run relationship. Third, sensitivity tests for the period 1987–2009 show that the cointegration relationship of the car ownership equations vanished. Finally, we find evidence on the effects of household income on motorcycle ownership, and the effects of income variables on car and motorcycle ownership are dissimilar. This study exhibits different results across regions. These findings may be related to the development of public transit system in each region.