THE CAPACITY OF THE N.S.W. PIG MARKET TO ABSORB POSSIBLE INCREASES IN NORTH COAST PIG PRODUCTION

Likely changes in gross income to farmers on the north coast of N.S.W. from an expansion of pig production are considered in the light of estimated demand conditions and the forecast future production of grain fed pigs in inland areas. Price elasticity of demand for pigmeat is estimated to be only slightly greater than unity; prospects for future expansion in inland areas are favourable given the strong direct relation found between pig production and wheat acreage and the low estimated elasticity of supply of 0.7; hence it is concluded expansion of milk-fed pig production would do little to solve the farm problem on the north coast. Pig numbers in coastal areas are found to be mainly determined by pig prices and coastal production of butter in previous periods; elasticity of supply is estimated to be O.5. In the demand analysis the importance of the level of migration as a determinant of the demand for pork is highlighted.