The cost of carry model and regime shifts in stock index futures markets: An empirical investigation

This article examines empirically the dynamic relationship between spot and futures prices in stock index futures markets employing a class of nonlinear, regime‐switching‐vector‐equilibrium‐correction models, which is novel in this context. Using data for the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 over the post‐1987 crash period, it is shown that a long‐run relationship between spot and futures prices exists, which implies mean reversion of the basis. After providing strong evidence against the hypothesis of linear dynamics in the relationship under investigation, regime‐switching‐vector‐equilibrium‐correction models for spot and futures price movements are developed and shown to capture well the time‐series properties of our data, consistent with a large theoretical and empirical literature. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:603–624, 2000.