The Doha Negotiations on Trade in Goods: At a Crossroads

In their current haste to deliver, the Doha negotiators seem to head for a package combining increased market access for “easy” products (mostly those with low or moderate tariffs) with broad exceptions in “difficult” sectors (mostly those with high tariffs). Such a mix may increase the chances of getting a deal, but it is certain to deliver a disappointing economic outcome, with very limited welfare gains for the consumers and additional market access for the exporters. The paper presents alternatives to the current proposals that would increase economic gains and would provide wider political support. As the alternatives are detailed enough to give a concrete sense of the issues at stake and of the outcomes within reach, the paper can be read in two ways. If the ongoing negotiations fail within the next weeks, these alternatives offer fresh options. If they lead to a deal within the next months, the alternatives offer a benchmark assessing the value of the Doha outcome that would have been achieved.