The Dynamics of an Open Access: The case of the Baltic Sea Cod Fishery - A Strategic Approach -

The paper sets up a discrete-time, deterministic model of a single industry, in the light of the benchmark theory of Smith (1968). The model is used to de-scribe the dynamics of recovery from a replenishable resource such as the case of the eastern Baltic Cod fishery. The model advances from Smith's (1968) theory since it includes a biological function dividing the change in the biomass into growth occurring during the year and recruits entering the spawning stock biomass and a dynamic entry/exit function applying a slightly more technical production function than the Schaefer production function. Theoretical possible types of steady state are discussed before the theory is applied to the eastern Baltic Sea cod fishery. The path the fishery has been following since 1982 is determined and it is discussed how it relates to the optimal path to steady state. The paper further throws light on questions as; Are we able to understand the dynamic behavior of fishermen in this fishery? Does a stable equilibrium exits and how is the path to this equilibrium described? When a fishery is regarded outside safe biological limits, could it be on the path to a positive steady state?