The dynamics of belief in climate change and its risks in business organisations

This paper presents a simulation model of the formation of the belief in climate change of a business organisation using a systems dynamics approach. Understanding how businesses form their belief on the issue of climate change is of paramount importance given the key role of beliefs and cognitive characteristics in the triggering and shaping of organisational adaptation processes. The main assumption of the model is that the dynamics of belief is driven by the perceived actual and potential changes in competitiveness as a consequence of climate impacts rather than by the growth of an ecological 'business conscience'. The model has been built using the STELLA software program, and it is based upon theoretical hypotheses drawn from behavioural studies of organisations and evolutionary theories of economic change.