The dynamics of consumer response A quest for the attractors of supply chain demand

The paper shows that it is possible to reconstruct the dynamical attractors of demand at different levels of the supply chain by using time series duplication and techniques for normalisation. The objective of reconstructing dynamical attractors is to learn more about the long‐term dynamical behaviour of supply chains. Typical patterns that can be encountered through phase space reconstruction are discussed. Based on the analysis of real life supply chains first results are presented on how attractors can be used to better understand the dynamical behaviour of supply chains. The cases show that clear attractors can be identified for consumer and retailer demand. When this demand is compared with supply the phase space analysis becomes an effective tool for identifying distortion in the supply chain. The paper concludes by presenting two examples on how a better understanding of demand attractors have been used to improve operational and tactical planning.