The ECB survey of professional forecasters : Third quarter of 2024, July 2024

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2024, expectations for headline HICP inflation were largely unchanged from the previous survey (conducted in the second quarter of 2024).1 Headline inflation was expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025 and further to 1.9% in 2026 (unchanged apart from a 0.1 percentage points downward revision for 2026). Longer-term HICP inflation expectations (for 2029 in this round, 2028 in the previous round) were unchanged at 2.0%. Expected real GDP growth for 2024 remained modest at 0.7%, reflecting mainly a weak carry-over from 2023, but was revised upwards due to a stronger than expected outturn in the first quarter of 2024. Expectations for 2025, 2026 and the longer term were 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.3% respectively (unchanged apart from a 0.1 percentage points downward revision for 2025). Respondents expected the unemployment rate to increase to 6.5% on average in 2024 but to decline gradually thereafter to 6.4% in 2026 and then remain at 6.4% in the longer term. This implies on average some slight downward revision to the profile of unemployment rate expectations.