THE ECONOMICS OF TOBACCO IN TURKEY : New evidence and demand estimates

This report reviews the key issues in the economics of tobacco control in Turkey, including taxation, tobacco control policies, income, price and expenditure elasticity of cigarettes and the link between poverty and tobacco use. In the first part of the report, information is presented on tobacco and cigarette production, cigarette consumption, and government policies related to tobacco, especially taxation and tobacco control. The second part analyses aggregate cigarette consumption. Using aggregate level data from 1960 to 2000, price, tax and income elasticities for cigarettes are estimated. In addition, substitution elasticities among three types of cigarettes, filter, non-filter and foreign cigarettes, are calculated. A simulation analysis estimates the impact that an increase in excise tax would have on cigarette consumption and government tax revenues. The third section examines demand for cigarettes in Turkey at household level using the 1994 Household Expenditure and Consumption Survey. Using these data, some key economic policy issues related to cigarettes are discussed including the impact that changes in the cigarette tax rate and price of cigarettes would have on the smoking prevalence rate and number of cigarettes smoked, controlling for social and demographic factors affecting the decision to smoke. A simulation analysis is conducted to examine the impact of changes of cigarette taxes on government tax revenues and cigarette consumption.