The Effects of Global Shocks on Small Commodity-Exporting Economies: Lessons from Canada

We propose a structural dynamic factor model of a small commodity-exporting economy, using Canada as a representative case study. Combining large panel data sets of the global and do- mestic economies, sign restrictions are used to identify relevant demand and supply shocks that explain volatility in real commod- ity prices. We quantify their dynamic effects on a wide variety of Canadian macro variables. We are able to reproduce all the main stylized features at business-cycle frequencies documented in the literature on this type of economies. These include a Dutch disease effect which has proven hard to find in empirical studies.