The Effects of Inflation and Demographic Change on Property Crime: A Structural Time-Series Approach.

This paper extends previous empirical research on the determinants of aggregate property crime rates in two dimensions.  First, we examine the effect of inflation on property crime rates.  Then, using a structural time-series approach we show that it is possible to estimate consistently the effects of exogenous macroeconomic variables on aggregate property crime rates without introducing endogenous deterrence to the model.  Inflation is statistically significant, positive, and persistent for all property crime rates examined.  We conclude that price stability contributes considerably to the reduction of property crimes.