The efficacy of university training programmes: a semi-parametric Bayesian approach

A semi-parametric Bayesian methodology based on Cox's proportional hazards model is proposed in order to evaluate the efficacy of training programmes offered by the University of Zaragoza (Spain) in the labour market insertion process. To this end, a matched comparison group has been designed in which university students completing vocational training courses are compared with eligible non-participants especially chosen for their similarity to the former group in terms of the factors affecting future employment prospects. The study shows that training courses were generally effective for job market insertion of university leavers, increasing their chances of avoiding unemployment by around 6.56% for a standard course. Effectiveness depends, however, on the university leaver's professional career choice.